Late Night Shuffle

On vacation last week, I didn't get around to reporting the news that former "SNL" cast member Jimmy Fallon will be replacing Conan O'Brien on NBC's "Late Night" when O'Brien gets the "Tonight Show" gig next year.

My brother and his friends, who follow the late night talk show circuit a lot more than I do, seem to think this will be a disaster of Titanic proportions because none seem to be fans of Fallon. They aren't the only ones that are worried.

One TV critic, Tim Goodman, wrote a column wondering if would-be movie star Fallon would be able to reduce his own ego in favor of his guest's, something that every talk show host needs to do (though somehow Larry King has managed a career for 40 years without being able to do this). Another critic, Alan Sepinwall, seemed to think the opposite, that Fallon wouldn't have enough of a personality to make a go of things.

My thoughts? Let Fallon actually tape a show or two before passing judgment.

Here's the thing. I remember when O'Brien was first named Letterman's replacement. Here was a guy who hadn't appeared regularly in front of a camera or an audience who was taking over for the most popular host on TV at that point. Needless to say, no one thought much of Conan's chances, but a decade-plus later, he seems to have done well enough for himself.

The late night circuit is something of a crapshoot, anyway. I never thought much of Jimmy Kimmel before, but with his recent brilliant Matt Damon-Ben Affleck-Sarah Silverman love triangle videos, he's riding a huge wave of popularity.

On the other hand, Chevy Chase, who had a very successful movie career, may go down as the worst talk show host in history.

Now people are questioning whether Conan, arguably the top host right now not on a show produced by Comedy Central, can take over "The Tonight Show," which skews to an older audience than his. I'm guessing if you ask an NBC exec, they are counting on Conan's appeal among younger viewers to cut into the Comedy Central juggernaut of "The Daily Show" and "The Colbert Report."

Meanwhile, people are pointing to Fallon's lackluster movie career and the success of his former SNL partner Tina Fey as to reasons why he will fail. I'll point out that A) few people are as hot as Tina Fey right now, or as funny in general, and B) the six people who watched the movie "Collision Course" probably never imagined that Pat Morita's partner in that flick would be able to successfully replace the legendary Johnny Carson.

Let's see Fallon do his thing, and then pass judgment.

AROUND THE DIAL: It's going to be very difficult for anyone to replace the late Stanley Kamel as a recurring character on "Monk," but the producers have signed the always reliable Hector Elizondo to play Monk's (Tony Shalhoub) new therapist. ... Oscar nominee Amy Ryan will be joining "The Office" as a guest star as Toby's replacement, while Oscar and Emmy nominee Angela Bassett will be joining the cast of "ER" for its final season next year. ...

WEDNESDAY'S BEST BETS: Can we please siphon just one of Thursday's great shows over to Wednesday's? Just one? Seriously, it'd free up my TV watching greatly to spread the wealth.

As it is, "American Idol" (Fox, 9 p.m.) dominates the night following new episodes of "Til Death" and "Back To You" on Fox.

"Criminal Minds" (CBS, 9 p.m.) is new, as is "CSI: NY" at 10 p.m., which squares off with a new episode of "Boston Legal" (ABC, 10 p.m.) "Law & Order" (NBC, 10 p.m.) follows a two-hour "Deal Or No Deal."

The CW is debuting the new reality show "Farmer Wants a Wife" at 9 p.m. I'd watch, but I'm worried my liver will force its way into my neck, cutting the flow of blood off to my brain. Come to think of it, that may be the only way to watch this show.

Finally, the documentary series "Carrier" (PBS, 9 p.m.) continues tonight.