The Emmys, Part II

Yesterday, I ranted about the Emmy voters' lack of a clue in regards to picking the nominees. (My punishment is that every single member of the Academy must right an apology letter to Edie Falco.)

Today, I pick the winners, tell you who should win, and which deserving actors should have won if I ruled the universe. If you've ever read my Oscar picks in The Telegraph's print edition, you know I probably won't be very accurate. You can catch the Emmys on NBC Sunday at 8 p.m. It's hosted by Conan O'Brien, which will be more worth watching than the actual awards.

The nominees:

Drama Series: "Grey's Anatomy," ABC; "House," Fox; "The Sopranos," HBO; "24," Fox; "The West Wing," NBC.

What will win: "Grey's." The voters want to show how hip they are.
What should win: From this list, "The Sopranos." Though the finale was pretty mediocre, the season as a whole was top-notch, thanks to its supremely talented cast.
TV Guy's Pick: "The Shield," FX. No show was more edge-of-your-seat, and the acting between star Michael Chiklis and new addition Forest Whitaker was sensational, not to mention one of the best all-around casts on TV. Honorable mention to "Lost," "Rescue Me" and "Battlestar Galactica."

Comedy Series: "Arrested Development," Fox; "Curb Your Enthusiasm," HBO; "The Office," NBC; "Scrubs," NBC; "Two and a Half Men," CBS.

What will win/what should win/TV Guy's pick: "The Office." Since I don't know how "Two and a Half Men" could even be nominated, I suppose it could be a dark horse. I have a lot of love for "AD," "Curb" and especially "Scrubs," but "The Office" has truly moved out of the shadow of the original British series and come into its own.

Variety, Music or Comedy Series: "The Colbert Report," Comedy Central; "The Daily Show With Jon Stewart," Comedy Central; "Late Night With Conan O'Brien," NBC; "Late Show With David Letterman," CBS; "Real Time With Bill Maher," HBO.

What will win/should win: "Colbert." Voters need an excuse not to keep voting for "The Daily Show" every year, and this gives them one.

Actor, Drama Series: Christopher Meloni, "Law & Order: Special Victims Unit," NBC; Denis Leary, "Rescue Me," FX Network; Peter Krause, "Six Feet Under," HBO; Kiefer Sutherland, "24," Fox; Martin Sheen, "The West Wing," NBC.

Who will win: Sutherland. Why people think "24" is great TV is beyond me, but Sutherland does a good job and doesn't have a lot of competition. There's also a feeling that he's due.
Who should win: Leary. Not only does he star in "Rescue Me," he also writes it. He has truly created one of the most complex characters on TV.
TV Guy's pick: Where is James Gandolfini? Michael Chiklis? How does Christopher Meloni crack this lineup? The pick here is Hugh Laurie. The other actors have great supporting casts that help make those shows. But Laurie, who won the Golden Globe, is virtually the entire show. Though the rest of the cast of "House" is excellent, the show revolves around the title character. The always-brilliant Laurie easily meets the challenge.

Actress, Drama Series: Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer," TNT; Geena Davis, "Commander in Chief," ABC; Mariska Hargitay, "Law & Order: Special Victims Unit," NBC; Frances Conroy, "Six Feet Under," HBO; Allison Janney, "The West Wing," NBC.

Who should win: Sedgwick. Again, the field she's going against isn't what it should be, but she's done a good job.
Who will win: Sedgwick, though Emmy favorite Janney could get a lot of love since this is her last hurrah.
TV Guy's pick: Mary McDonnell, "Battlestar Galactica." Any actress who makes me even consider not giving this Emmy automatically to "The Sopranos" Edie Falco really must be doing something right. The finals two or three episodes of "BSG," in which McDonnell's President Roslin conspires to fix the election, contained just a terrifically layered performance. Another notable absentee on this list is Kristin Bell of "Veronica Mars."

Supporting Actor, Drama Series: William Shatner, "Boston Legal," ABC; Oliver Platt, "Huff," Showtime; Michael Imperioli, "The Sopranos," HBO; Gregory Itzin, "24," Fox; Alan Alda, "The West Wing," NBC.

Who will win: Itzin. I don't have a problem with this, though I really don't like "24."
Who should win: Alda. I am tempted to cast a write-in ballot for Sen. Arnold Vinick for the real election in 2008. (Emmy trivia: Alda is the only person to win lead acting, writing and directing Emmys, all for "MASH.")
TV Guy's Pick: There are way too many people left off this list, including pretty much every cast member of "Lost." I came up with about 20 names I would have put in this category ahead of everybody but Alda. The absolute best, however, was Forest Whitaker of "The Shield." I don't even have an adjective that will do him justice.

Supporting Actress, Drama Series: Candice Bergen, "Boston Legal," ABC; Sandra Oh, "Grey's Anatomy," ABC; Chandra Wilson, "Grey's Anatomy," ABC; Blythe Danner, "Huff," Showtime; Jean Smart, "24," Fox.

Who will win: Bergen. Emmy voters are incapable of not voting for Candice Bergen. I think it's an Emmy by-law.
Who should win: Smart. It was hard not to root for her First Lady. Oh and Wilson will cancel each other out.
TV Guy's Pick: CCH Pounder of "The Shield," Tricia Helfer of "Battlestar Galactica" or Andrea Roth of "Rescue Me" were all worthy of being on this list, to name but a few.

Actor, Comedy Series: Larry David, "Curb Your Enthusiasm," HBO; Kevin James, "The King of Queens," CBS; Tony Shalhoub, "Monk," USA; Steve Carell, "The Office," NBC; Charlie Sheen, "Two and a Half Men," CBS.

Who will win/should win/TV Guy's pick: Carell. Not only is he one of the biggest comedy stars around, but he's note-perfect as the clueless Michael Scott. I would have loved to have seen a nom for "Scrubs'" Zach Braff instead of Sheen, though.

Actress, Comedy Series: Lisa Kudrow, "The Comeback," HBO; Jane Kaczmarek, "Malcolm in the Middle," Fox; Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "The New Adventures of Old Christine," CBS; Stockard Channing, "Out of Practice," CBS; Debra Messing, "Will & Grace," NBC.

Who will win: Messing. Emmy voters will want to give "Will & Grace" a big sendoff. Kudrow may score an upset.
Who should win: Louis-Dreyfus, who has finally broken the "Seinfeld" curse, or Kaczmarek, for her years of great work.
TV Guy's pick: Marcia Cross, "Desperate Housewives." Though "DH" had a down year, Cross was and always is a marvel and rose above the mediocre writing. It's hard to imagine any other actress being able to make Bree hilarious, sympathetic and unique all at the same time and not have her appear two-dimensional.

Supporting Actor, Comedy Series: Will Arnett, "Arrested Development," Fox; Jeremy Piven, "Entourage," HBO; Bryan Cranston, "Malcolm in the Middle," Fox; Jon Cryer, "Two and a Half Men," CBS; Sean Hayes, "Will & Grace," NBC.

Who will win: Hayes. See above for the whole "W&G" thing. Piven may pull an upset here, however.
Who should win: Piven, who always steals every scene in pretty much any production he's in.
TV Guy's pick: If I ruled the universe, not only would everybody be better off, but Cranston would finally get his long, long overdue Emmy. And John C. McGinley of "Scrubs" and Rainn Wilson of "The Office" would have gotten nominations.

Supporting Actress, Comedy Series: Cheryl Hines, "Curb Your Enthusiasm," HBO; Alfre Woodard, "Desperate Housewives," ABC; Jaime Pressly, "My Name Is Earl," ABC; Elizabeth Perkins, "Weeds," Showtime; Megan Mullally, "Will & Grace," NBC.

Who will win: Mullally. See above. Because of the cluelessness of Emmy voters, the horribly-misused Woodard may get the win.
Who should win: Pressly.
TV Guy's pick: The always-hilarious Allyson Hannigan on "How I Met Your Mother." Honorable mention to Jenna Fischer of "The Office" and both Sarah Chalke and Judy Reyes of "Scrubs." (By the way, I think Woodard is one of the five best actresses in Hollywood, but the "DH" writers totally failed to live up to her standards. Though there are plenty of great examples of her brilliance, catch the episode of "Homicide: Life on the Streets" in which Woodard guest-starred. The scene between her and Andre Braugher's Pembleton in the interview room should be required viewing in acting classes.)

Agree? Disagree? Post a comment and let me know.